“Bear Bets” are real wagers that Chris “The Bear” Fallica is actually making.
Betting on the NFL Draft is an exercise in information acquisition. If you get the info, you are in a position to prosper. It’s the one thing where I don’t mind laying a big price.
If the info is strong, I’ll lay anything within reason. It’s when the actual number moves which makes betting on the draft tougher.
So I did bet a bunch of props, many with prices north of -200. But I will not bore you with those as I’m not sure everyone has the same appetite as I do when it comes to laying that type of number. But there are a few that I would think are playable for most bettors. Let’s jump into some draft bets I like.
Jalen Carter Under pick No. 6.5 at +115 (bet $10 to win $21.50 total)
Carter reportedly has his share of concerns, but there’s zero doubt he’s an immediate impact player. If the Texans are going to take a defensive player, he could go as high as No. 2. Arizona could take him at three, Seattle could take him at five or Detroit could take him at six and pair him with last year’s No. 1 pick Aidan Hutchinson on what could be a pretty scary defensive line in a wide-open division.
With so many questions on the quarterbacks and an apparent lack of teams looking to trade up for one of them, it likely means Carter goes very early. We’re getting plus money on a guy worthy of being the top overall pick based on his play.
Under 4.5 quarterbacks selected in the first round at -125 (bet $10 to win $18 total)
I completely get the logic that a team would want to take a QB in the back end of the first round for financial and contractual purposes. But is a team going to take a 25-year-old Hendon Hooker off a torn ACL from an air raid offense just for fifth-year control? What’s the earliest he potentially could be a starter? The 2025 season?
There are people who feel differently, and maybe they will prove to be correct, but there’s been a laundry list of guys hyped to go in the back end of the first round for these reasons, and it just hasn’t happened.
Bryce Young and Will Levis to be first two quarterbacks selected +160 (bet $10 to win $26 total)
It appears Bryce Young will be the No. 1 pick, but who wants to lay -1000 or so on that?
Word is Will Levis is in play to be the second QB selected. Maybe he’ll go to the Colts at No. 4? Is he a project? Yes. But Anthony Richardson is a bigger project. I’m not quite sure if I buy all the criticism of C.J. Stroud, but it does appear as if we’re at a point where there’s a good chance Levis is QB2.
Another twist on this bet is the ability to lay -175 and play Levis in a head-to-head with Richardson. That provides a bit of a cushion if you think Stroud is QB2 and you feel strongly — as I do — that Levis will go before Richardson.
Joel Klatt’s Top 50 Players in the 2023 NFL Draft feat. Bijan Robinson & Tyree Wilson
Joel Klatt revealed his top 50 players 2.0 for the 2023 NFL Draft.
First three picks not all QB at -275 (bet $10 to win $13.64 total)
If you are not risk-averse and don’t mind laying a big price, there’s a prop out there that the first three picks will not be all quarterbacks. Personally, this is my favorite prop of all here, but I get how some may not want to lay -275.
We know a quarterback is going first, but there’s a very good chance we don’t see another QB until the Colts at the fourth pick. Reports are that the Texans have more than hinted that they’re not in the QB market with the second pick. And remember, the Texans also pick at 12. So that could be used as trade bait if they want to jump back up into the Top 10 to take someone who slides. Or the Texans could simply take Fresno State‘s Jake Haener (or someone else) early in Round 2.
The Cardinals believe they have their franchise QB in Kyler Murray, so they won’t take that position at three. Or, I guess I should say it would be a surprise if they take a QB with the third pick. Sure, they could trade the pick, but there just does not appear to be a trade partner right now — especially for QBs that are nowhere near ready to step in and see the field. I feel very good about this prop.
Chris “The Bear” Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an “occasional” wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He’s a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, “The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!” Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.
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