USC’s Caleb Williams’ NFL Draft No. 1 pick odds on the move

Caleb Williams and the USC Trojans have stumbled of late, losing their past two games and tumbling all the way from a high of No. 5 to 24th in the latest AP Top 25 poll.

Williams’ odds of repeating as the Heisman Trophy winner have also plummeted, as he’s tied for 10th at +10000 (bet $10 to win $1,010 total) after being the heavy favorite entering the season (+475).

Williams has not put up eye-popping stats this season. Two other Pac-12 Conference quarterbacks — Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. and Colorado‘s Shedeur Sanders — have thrown for more yards, and Williams ranks fifth in the country (2,277 yards), with Washington State’s Cam Ward just 60 yards behind him.

But has USC’s recent woes affected the reigning Heisman Trophy winner’s draft status?

Let’s dive into the latest odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.


Caleb Williams, USC: -310 (bet $10 to win $12 total)
Drake Maye, North Carolina: +270 (bet $10 to win $37 total)
Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State: +2000 (bet $10 to win $210 total)
J.J. McCarthy, Michigan: +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total)
Olumuyiwa Fashanu, Penn State: +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total)
Michael Penix Jr., Washington: +5000 (bet $10 to win $510 total)

There’s also a prop wager available of Williams vs. every other draft-eligible player to be the top pick:

Williams: -310 (bet $10 to win $13.23 total)
Field: +200 (bet $10 to win $30 total)

*odds as of 10/23/2023

Utah wins in a 34-32 THRILLER over USC

RELATED: J.J. McCarthy new favorite for Heisman Trophy

Williams’ odds of being selected first currently sit at -310. That is a big change from the offseason, where he was a larger favorite at -500 (bet $10 to win $12 total) to be the top pick.

North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye is on Williams’ heels, with his odds to go No. 1 shortening all the way to +270.

For the year, Williams is 166-for-237 passing (70%) for 2,277 yards, 23 touchdowns, four interceptions and a 179.4 passer rating. Nice stats, to be sure, but pale in comparison to the numbers he put up last season while winning the Heisman (333-for-500 passing, 66.6%, 4,537 yards, 42 touchdowns, five interceptions, 168.5 passer rating).

FOX Sports “Speak For Yourself” co-host Emmanuel Acho suggested Williams protect his future by sitting out the remainder of the season as the Trojans are no longer in the national title picture.

FOX Sports College Football Analyst Joel Klatt said Williams’ performance can be directly linked to USC’s issues on the offensive line. As a counterpoint, Michigan picked up three starting offensive linemen in the transfer portal and QB J.J. McCarthy is thriving, Klatt said.

“Right now, USC’s offense is a BB gun because they can’t protect Caleb Williams,” Klatt said recently on “The Herd.” “If anything, they should’ve been deeper in the transfer portal to try and build their offensive line. … Caleb Williams needs protection now.”

FOX Sports NFL Draft Analyst Rob Rang recently wrote about Heisman candidates’ NFL prospects. Rang has Williams at the top of NFL Draft Big Board.

“While a few inches shorter than preferred (6-foot-1), Williams has a compact, well-muscled frame, good mobility in and out of the pocket, and exceptional accuracy to all levels of the field, including when on the move,” Rang wrote. “Williams’ greatest attribute is his ability to improvise as the play breaks down. His creativity and composure in these moments are highly prized in quarterbacks and examples of the traits that cannot be coached. “

The Chicago Bears are projected to have the top pick, laying claim to the first-round selection of the 0-6 Carolina Panthers. Williams, however, has another year of college eligibility and there have been reports he could return to USC if he doesn’t land with a desired franchise.

“So if there’s not a good situation, the truth is, he can come back to school,” his father, Carl said.

Who do you project being the top pick of the 2024 NFL Draft? Follow FOX Sports for the latest college football and NFL news.

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