It’s week 10 of the NFL, and we are more than halfway through the season.
As we inch towards the postseason, the pressure only increases as teams jockey for playoff positioning over the next eight weeks.
And for bettors, that makes the games even more exciting!
I’ve got all those games covered, plus a teaser that I’m eager about.
I’m 30-22 on the season, so let’s keep the good times rolling as the games get tougher.
Here are my best bets for Week 10.
All times ET
After going against Seattle last week in Baltimore, I’m back on them this week as they step down in class from facing two of the best defensive teams in the league — the Cleveland Browns are first in defense; the Baltimore Ravens rank second — to Washington, which is 29th in DVOA.
Washington’s defense held up against the New England Patriots, but they’ll struggle to contain Seattle’s offense, which is coming off a pathetic 151-yard performance vs. the Ravens.
I like this under the key number of 7, and yes, there’s concern that Sam Howell could come with a late backdoor.
PICK: Seattle (-6) to win by more than 6 points
Yes, the Saints were a backbreaking non-cover last week. They won the turnover battle 5-0 and had the ball in Chicago Bears territory three times in the fourth quarter but failed to score.
And yet here we are again, going against America’s favorite third-string QB, Josh Dobbs.
Sure, Dobbs was incredible scrambling (66 yards, TD), but it’s as if the Atlanta Falcons weren’t ready for his improvisation — well, after the first two possessions when he took a safety and fumbled.
This can’t possibly continue, right? They’ll put a spy on Dobbs, right?
They’ll return to earth after last week’s thrilling win.
PICK: Saints moneyline (-153)
No, you can’t get rich betting double-digit favorites in the long run, but yes, you can find value in them occasionally.
When these two met in the season opener, and both teams were healthy, Dallas won 40-0. The Dallas offense didn’t play well, but they didn’t have to.
The Giants defense, meanwhile, has improved over the last month, but that fell apart in Vegas against a bad Raiders team.
I can’t find an edge for the Giants. Special teams? The Giants are 31st; Dallas is third.
I don’t see how New York keeps up unless you can convince me that Tommy Devito is somehow getting the Giants to 17 points. He’ll do better than 2-for-7 for -1 yards (vs. the Jets), but probably not by much.
I wouldn’t be doing my job if I didn’t remind you of that.
PICK: Dallas (-17) to win by more than 17 points
3-team, 7-point teaser (+120)
Cardinals +9, Jets +7, Buffalo -.5
Cardinals +2 to +9
The Falcons don’t blow anyone out because their coach is ultra–conservative, and the defense struggles to get timely stops.
I have no clue what to expect from Kyler Murray (will he even want to run much?), but if I can get Arizona catching over a touchdown against an average QB, I’ll take it.
Jets pick em to +7
It’s a gross spot for the Jets, off of Monday Night football flying across the country.
The Raiders have taken money all week because they looked like a rejuvenated team after firing Josh McDaniels and dismantling the Giants.
The best unit on the field will be the Jets defense, which should eat up the rookie QB.
This feels like a low-scoring game with a field goal deciding it — unless one of the QBs gives the game away, which is very possible!
Bills -7.5 to .5
The Broncos will be frisky here, as evidenced by their good defensive showings against Kansas City.
The full–season metrics are skewed by the 70 points and 700 yards given up to the Miami Dolphins.
Get more from National Football League Follow your favorites to get information about games, news and more