Florida In, Ole Miss Out? Joel Klatt’s College Football Playoff Projections

Which teams have made their case for this year’s College Football Playoff after Week 4?

Entering Week 5, top-25 teams have already suffered upsets or won big games that have kept them in the playoff conversation. Miami’s powerful offense, featuring Darian Mensah and Malachi Toney, has already made a significant impression. While Jeremiah Smith and Ohio State are just 3-1 entering a Big Ten contest at Iowa, the Buckeyes’ performance shows they are still the class of the conference.

Here are Joel Klatt’s College Football Playoff projections after Week 4:

Klatt’s thoughts: “I do think that the Hurricanes are going to be undefeated … They are incredibly powerful. I think that we are going to look up at the end of this week after they travel to Clemson and we’re going to be like ‘yeah, that team is absolutely for real.’” 

Klatt’s thoughts: “I like Georgia over Alabama in the SEC championship game. So if they win the SEC, either undefeated or one loss, it doesn’t matter to me, I think they’ll get the benefit of the doubt here and get the No. 2 seed. I think Georgia is that good. We saw that a week ago when they blew the doors off of Oklahoma. I think Georgia is very good.”

Klatt’s thoughts: “I think regardless of what happens in Columbus, I think Ohio State is going to go to Indianapolis and win the Big Ten. Ohio State is going to take the No. 3 seed as the Big Ten champ. I think they are probably an 11-2 team at that point because of their slate. I know that Matt Patricia is still figuring out that defense, and they’re going to have to stop the run much better than they did a week ago. Illinois kind of ran all over them, but they still have Julian Sayin. (He’s) an experienced guy and a Heisman finalist a year ago, and they still have the best player in the sport, Jeremiah Smith.”

Klatt’s thoughts: “Alabama I’ve got in the SEC championship game, but they lose the game to Georgia. I don’t think they’re going to be penalized for getting to the SEC championship game. I think Alabama could get to the championship game with one loss. Let’s say they get a second loss, I don’t think they drop totally out of getting a bye. I think they’ll be rewarded for their regular season.”

Klatt’s thoughts: “Would you jump Texas in for a bye because Alabama lost the SEC championship game? No, you wouldn’t do that. That’s why Texas is going to host a first-round game, hosting the 12 seed. Texas is probably an 11-1 team at that point. They make the playoff, but they’re playing in the first round.”

Klatt’s thoughts: “My six-seed is also 11-1, they lost one game, it was to Miami. I think that Notre Dame falls behind Texas, and Bama, for that matter, because there’s some realization or talk or narrative – and I think that it’s actually true – that their schedule is just not difficult enough. So 11-1 Notre Dame, this might even be benefit of the doubt here giving them the six-seed. But they’re definitely in. They don’t have a bye, even at 11-1. They would if they were undefeated.”

Klatt’s thoughts: “I’ve got Oregon as the Big Ten championship loser. But again, they would have two, maybe even three losses at that point – if they get to that game 10-2 and then lose and they’re 10-3, that’s why they fell behind Notre Dame. I’m on the Ducks. I think they’re going to come back and be better at the end of the year than they were at the beginning of the year. They can fix some of those problems that we saw against Oklahoma State.”

Klatt’s thoughts: “Here’s my eight-seed, and it’s the Big 12 title winner. I’ve got Utah; now you guys know how I feel about Utah, but when you really look at this team, this is a really, really good Utah team. They’re playing great on defense, they can run the football, they’re explosive, they get BYU at home – that’s a huge benefit for them, because Salt Lake, at Utah, that’s one of the great homefield advantages in all of college football.”

Klatt’s thoughts: “At No. 9 I’ve got the defending champs, Indiana. I know they’re dealing with some injuries right now, and specifically to their running back room. Turbo Richard, hopefully he’s not out long-term. But they did have Lee Beebe Jr. run for over 200 yards against Northwestern – that’s still an offense that can threaten you in a hurry with the run game or the pass game, with guys like Charlie Becker getting down the field.”

Klatt’s thoughts: “At No. 10 – here’s where we get some fun ones … Florida. Look at their schedule. They could lose the two games that are the most difficult games left on the schedule – it’s Texas and Georgia – they’re 10-2. They would easily get in, and maybe even with a better seed than the 10-seed. I’ve got Florida in the playoff. I think this is a very good football team. And remember, run game travels.”

Klatt’s thoughts: “You’re starting to think to yourself like, ‘man, there’s a lot of teams that are going to be in the mix.’ And I agree: I think there could be four, five, six, seven teams that we’re debating about for this 11 spot. And I actually believe that when we get to December, we’re going to start to think about that 24-team model a little differently because of the number of teams we’re debating.

“Oklahoma State. Let’s just say, for the sake of argument, they’re 11-2. That’s just their second loss, they’ve rolled off all these wins since the Tulsa loss, Week 1 of the season, including a win over Oregon … And we’re not going to penalize them for losing their championship game.”

Klatt’s thoughts: “The Group of Six member is going to be Boise State. They’ve been outstanding so far. They played Oregon ultra close in that first game of the year – that’s going to be big for convincing the committee that they can go into the playoff and play with Power Four teams. And then they have blowout wins over teams that we thought were going to be G6 contenders for this spot. Memphis, beat them by 18. Western Michigan, beat them by 25 on the road.”

Battle For Final Power Four Playoff Spot: Ole Miss, Oklahoma State, Iowa, UCLA