2026 NFL Schedule Release: Win-Loss Predictions, Analysis For Every Team

Each year, the release of the NFL schedule brings hope to all 32 fan bases, as everyone charts out how their favorite team can make the playoffs. Well, now it’s time for us to determine whether those hopes are valid. 

As the NFL released its full regular-season schedule on Thursday, we’re predicting the records for all 32 teams. The Los Angeles Rams remain the favorite to win the Super Bowl following Thursday’s schedule release, but are we sure they’re destined to make another run with Matthew Stafford in 2026? Will the Seattle Seahawks have a strong enough regular season to show they’re a true threat to repeat as Super Bowl champions?

We’re planting our flags on the answers to those questions and how every team will perform in the 2026 regular season. 

AFC East

Record prediction: 11-6

Ralph Vacchiano: The Buffalo Bills still have Josh Allen, have improved their defense and probably have a stronger overall team. But the schedule is sneaky dangerous for Joe Brady’s first season as head coach. They already have the eighth-toughest schedule based on last year’s records, but even that’s deceiving because the slate is filled with teams that underachieved in 2025 — like the Kansas City Chiefs, Detroit Lions and Baltimore Ravens (whom the Bills face at home). Add in road trips to Green Bay, Denver and Los Angeles to face the Rams, and there won’t be many breaks. It’s a good thing for them that half the AFC East remains terrible.

Record prediction: 5-12

Greg Auman: This is actually an optimistic projection, taking the Dolphins to clear their extremely low over-under of 4.5 wins after going 7-10 last season. The Miami Dolphins have done a full rebrand – new coach, new general manager, new quarterback – and that’s not likely to all take shape in the first year. Looking for easy wins, they have the New York Jets twice and the Las Vegas Raiders. They’ll be an underdog everywhere else, so five wins means Malik Willis holds up well in his first full season as an NFL starter, and Miami’s defense overcomes a young and underwhelming front seven. The reasonable Year 1 challenge for Jeff Hafley’s team is to stay ahead of the Jets and set things up to be competitive in 2027, when they have $145 million in 2027 cap space (only the Jets and Arizona Cardinals have more), so you want to be seen as a franchise on the rise that doesn’t have to overpay to import free-agent talent.

Record prediction: 10-7

Henry McKenna: It’s like night and day when looking at the New England Patriots’ home schedule and their schedule on the road. They’ll face five playoff teams on the road, including the Seattle Seahawks (and not including the Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs, who seem primed for comeback years). It’s actually rare for a Super Bowl loser to miss the playoffs altogether, and I don’t think that’ll happen here — not as the Patriots continued to invest in their weakness on offense and built even more depth to their defense. For now, the Patriots must be pleased to have added wide receiver Romeo Doubs and rookie offensive tackle Caleb Lomu. The biggest prize, however, is sure to be A.J. Brown, expected to join New England in a trade later this offseason. Still, the Patriots won’t match their 14-win season last year. 

Record prediction: 6-11

McKenna: The New York Jets will definitely want to draft a quarterback in 2027. But head coach Aaron Glenn needs to post results this year in the win column. And that’ll take priority, particularly given the Jets have multiple first-rounders, so they can package picks to move up — if they do win more games than expected. Their offense looks young and loaded, with the exception of veteran quarterback Geno Smith. Their defense is totally rebuilt in Glenn’s image. The Jets have a lot of potential easy wins, from the Miami Dolphins (2x), Las Vegas Raiders, Tennessee Titans and Arizona Cardinals. And I think they can steal a game or two away from more impressive teams.

AFC North

Record prediction: 12-5

Vacchiano: It’s been 28 years since the Baltimore Ravens suffered back-to-back losing seasons, and don’t expect it to happen now that Jesse Minter has taken over for John Harbaugh. With a healthy Lamar Jackson, they are still the class of the AFC North. And they have a great chance to pad their record with games against teams from two of the NFL’s weakest divisions (the NFC South and AFC South). More than half their games are against teams that missed the playoffs last year, and maybe only one — a road trip to Buffalo — is against an obvious Super Bowl contender. If they can avoid the slow start that’s doomed them the last two seasons, this team has a shot to build a lot of momentum and hit the postseason on a roll.

Record prediction: 11-6

Ben Arthur: With a healthy Joe Burrow, the Cincinnati Bengals win at least nine games. Their offense is that good in a vacuum. But as we know, what’s held Cincinnati out of the playoffs the last couple of seasons, has been its defense, which ranked 31st in yards allowed and 30th in points given up in 2025. To the Bengals’ credit, they’ve been aggressively building up that side of the ball this offseason. They’ve remade their defensive line with Dexter Lawrence II, Boye Mafe and Jonathan Allen. They added a reliable veteran in Bryan Cook at safety. I don’t think the moves Cincinnati has made are enough to get it back into the AFC’s upper echelon, but the team should be back in the postseason mix.   

Record prediction: 6-11

Vacchiano: The Cleveland Browns revamped their offensive line, added some young receivers and even strengthened their top-tier defense. But new coach Todd Monken still has the same old problem at quarterback. The only good news is that he might have some space to figure that out against what, based on last season’s records, is the easiest schedule in the league. They face only five games against 2025 playoff teams. Four of their road games are against teams that drafted in the top eight. They only play four teams all season that had a winning record last year. If, by some miracle, they can find a competent quarterback, this could be a real bounce-back season for the Browns. Just don’t hold your breath waiting for that miracle to happen, even against a slate this soft.

Record prediction: 8-9

Vacchiano: So much of the Pittsburgh Steelers’ season is riding on the old shoulders of Aaron Rodgers — whether he plays again, or whether he can defy his age for one more season. Whoever their quarterback is will immediately have a tougher challenge if Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow can stay healthy, making the AFC North games much more of a minefield. The Steelers also have to go on the road to New England and Philadelphia, and even their trip to Jacksonville won’t be easy. Playing the NFC South and AFC South gives them plenty of soft spots in the schedule. But finishing first last season gave them their division’s toughest schedule. Given their fragile state, stuck between contending and rebuilding, that’s not much of a prize.

AFC South

Record prediction: 11-6

Auman: The Houston Texans opened 2-4 last year and then won 10 of 11 behind the best defense in the NFL. Can an overhauled offensive line help them find a top-10 offense to match? The AFC South should be a two-horse race with the Jacksonville Jaguars, but Houston’s second-place schedule might actually be tougher than Jacksonville’s, facing the Buffalo Bills, Green Bay Packers and Los Angeles Chargers, all projected to win more games than their division’s defending champs. Can C.J. Stroud get back to the promise of his rookie year? Adding running back David Montgomery should give the offense more balance after an ineffective run game in 2025 that ranked 29th in yards per carry. Getting Stroud up to 25-plus touchdown passes might be the difference between good and great, with the Texans likely on the road in the AFC divisional round again in 2026. 

Record prediction: 5-12

Arthur: The Indianapolis Colts’ gamble on Daniel Jones is risky — coming off an Achilles tear in December, there’s no telling how quickly he can get back to the level he was playing at in the beginning of the 2025 season, if at all. Sure, Jonathan Taylor is still around to carry a big load, but the pass game also has a big void with Michael Pittman Jr. out of the picture. And it’s difficult to have confidence in the defense, either. The Colts still have a hole at edge rusher opposite Laiatu Latu. Linebacker Zaire Franklin is gone (traded to the Green Bay Packers), and reliable nickelback Kenny Moore could be joining him, too. Colts owner Carlie Irsay-Gordon was confident in running it back with coach Shane Steichen and general manager Chris Ballard in 2026, but there are too many unknown variables. 

Record prediction: 10-7

Auman: Everyone expects the Jacksonville Jaguars to take a step back after a wildly successful 13-4 debut season under Liam Coen. Can the defense come close to 31 takeaways this year? Can Trevor Lawrence match (or exceed) a career-best 29 touchdown passes? Jacksonville let two of its top young stars leave in free agency in running back Travis Etienne and linebacker Devin Lloyd, so will they be missed? Is Travis Hunter the playmaker they drafted him to be, or a non-factor again? With a quiet free agency, no first-round pick and a few reaches in the draft, you can argue they lost more talent than they added in the offseason. But the Jaguars had six wins of 14-plus points in the final eight weeks of the regular season; no other team had more than three in that span. If that’s who the 2026 Jaguars are, they’ll win much more than 10 games. 

Record prediction: 6-11

Arthur: Arguably the NFL’s most talent-deficient team the last two seasons, the Tennessee Titans have raised their floor substantially in the span of a few months. Their defense should be more than competent, particularly on the defensive line. Cam Ward now has a respectable receiver room around him, highlighted by No. 4 overall pick Carnell Tate. That should lead to at least a couple more wins in 2026. Having a last-place schedule (again) will help. But how much of a step does Ward take in Year 2? That’s the big question. The Titans’ future hinges on it. Ward’s showing against some of the NFL’s best defenses as a rookie is reason for optimism. 

AFC West

Record prediction: 11-6

McKenna: It’s a tough draw, adding the superpowered NFC West onto a schedule that doubles up on the outstanding AFC West. If not for that tough schedule, I would’ve increased the Denver Broncos’ win totals significantly. That’s why I envision this season being a bit of a slog for Denver. The addition of wide receiver Jaylen Waddle is thrilling, and he should be a truly sensational option across from Courtland Sutton. The defense might not perform at the same level as last year — just because there tends to be variance from year to year with defenses — but this team should still be really excellent. They were, after all, a Super Bowl favorite, if not for Bo Nix’s injury. If their quarterback stays healthy, this team will again make a deep playoff run.

Record prediction: 8-9

McKenna: Out of an abundance of caution, the Kansas City Chiefs probably won’t start quarterback Patrick Mahomes in Week 1. He might be ready ahead of schedule. But the risks are too significant, whether that’s the quarterback suffering another injury, or simply that he doesn’t quite look the same right away. Justin Fields will be in the building to buy Mahomes some time. And while Fields doesn’t strike fear into opponents, coach Andy Reid will find the best ways to use the toolsy, dual-threat quarterback. But this is a team that’s firmly on the fringe of the playoffs, between Mahomes’ injury and the general uncertainty about personnel on offense. Do they have the right wide receiver? Do they have the right tackles? Can Travis Kelce do much more than rotational play? That’s a lot of questions. And with his ACL recovery, Mahomes will have fewer answers than normal.

Record prediction: 4-13

Eric D. Williams: In his first year as a head coach, Klint Kubiak’s primary job is to make sure there are no hiccups in No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza’s development. That’s why the Las Vegas  Raiders signed Kirk Cousins, so they don’t have to rush the Indiana product onto the field if he’s not ready. Raiders general manager John Spytek did a nice job of improving the roster through the draft and free agency with signings like center Tyler Linderbaum, and defensive draft picks in safety Treydan Stukes and cornerback Jermod McCoy. The Raiders also benefited from the Ravens rescinding a trade for Maxx Crosby, getting the team’s best player back on the roster. But there will be an uphill climb for Las Vegas to escape the bottom of the AFC West.

Record prediction: 10-7

Williams: Securing the services of offensive innovator Mike McDaniel was one of the biggest signings in the league this offseason. McDaniel will design an offense that gets the most out of talented signal caller Justin Herbert, while also doing a better job of keeping him clean. The Los Angeles Chargers will miss departed defensive coordinator Jesse Minter, now the head coach in Baltimore. The Bolts could have used another playmaker on offense and another pass rusher on defense, but head coach Jim Harbaugh will have his team buttoned up and in position to make the playoffs. One-and-done in their first two postseasons together, Herbert and Harbaugh must figure out how to make it happen once they get there. 

NFC East

Record prediction: 6-11

Arthur: An elite offense got the Dallas Cowboys seven wins last season. So, with the same offense and an improved defense entering 2026, getting above .500 should be more than doable. It helps that the NFC East isn’t as threatening as it was a year ago at this time. But their non-division schedule is brutal. The Cowboys have the Jacksonville Jaguars, Baltimore Ravens, San Francisco 49ers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers at home. Away, they’ll see the Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams. Apart from the Texans, all those teams have offenses that are good to great, ones that should pose big challenges for a first-time defensive coordinator in Christian Parker. The Cowboys’ offense won’t have an easy going, either. Expectations are high in Dallas, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see it take a step back. 

Record prediction: 7-10

Vacchiano: The New York Giants are expecting big things in the first year of the John Harbaugh era and their second year with Jaxson Dart, especially after enduring one of the NFL’s toughest schedules last season. They’re more in the middle of the pack this year, but the NFC East could be much tougher to navigate. They also play seven 2025 playoff teams, and they have to go on the road to face the defending Super Bowl champs (Seattle Seahawks), plus tough trips to Houston, Philly, Detroit and Los Angeles (the Rams). They do have a chance to build up some equity at home, where they face the Tennessee Titans, Cleveland Browns, Arizona Cardinals and New Orleans Saints, so that will help. But the rough road could put a cap on any overall improvements that they make.

Record prediction: 12-5

Vacchiano: The Philadelphia Eagles are as loaded as ever, and if they can just get some consistency up front and a little better play out of their offense, they’ve got a chance to be a Super Bowl contender. They sure will have to run the gauntlet of contenders to get there, though. They’ve got home games against the Los Angeles Rams, Houston Texans and the defending champion Seattle Seahawks, plus road trips to San Francisco, Chicago and Jacksonville. The NFC East is better too, but the Eagles are still the class of that division, by far. And they can fatten up their record on AFC South teams, too. But they will be tested constantly this season against some of the NFL’s elite. If nothing else, it’ll be very clear where they stand heading into the playoffs.

Record prediction: 6-11

Vacchiano: The Washington Commanders are counting on the healthy return of Jayden Daniels to vault them into contention, but even that could be tough unless the complete rebuild of their league-worst defense actually works. They’ll find out because they face six of the top 11 offensive teams from last season, plus two more teams (Philadelphia Eagles, Cincinnati Bengals) that could be in the top 10 this year. In fact, outside of road trips to Arizona and Tennessee, they don’t face anyone who doesn’t have a legit shot at the playoffs in 2026. Daniels’ return will surely give them a boost, but they are plugging in so many new pieces, including two new coordinators, that they might need time to figure it all out. But this schedule really doesn’t give them any breaks.

NFC North

Record prediction: 11-6

McKenna: The Chicago Bears have something special in Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams. And 11 wins is actually quite generous, given their schedule, the toughest in the NFL (in terms of opponents’ combined winning percentage in 2025). Williams and Johnson have continued to develop the level of trust that’s instrumental for long-term success in the NFL. Even with the Bears winning a lot of close victories (and even with those sorts of teams tending toward regression), I believe in what Johnson is building. I believe in the ways the coach is developing Williams. And I see a clear path from general manager Ryan Poles in building up the offense last year (still reaching maturity) before addressing the defense in a big way this year. Defensive coordinator Dennis Allen has way more tools to improve that unit. This Bears team will be more consistent — and, in turn, better.

Record prediction: 10-7

Arthur: On paper, the Detroit Lions’ offense is worse off. Standout RB2 David Montgomery is out of the picture. There are shuffling parts on an O- line that struggled in 2025. But with a fourth-place schedule, Detroit is poised to have a bounce-back year. Of the Lions’ 11 non-division games, just three are against teams that made the playoffs last year — New England Patriots, Buffalo Bills and Carolina Panthers. Their road slate includes favorable matchups: Atlanta Falcons, Miami Dolphins and Arizona Cardinals. The Lions clearly have a path to double-digit victories. It remains to be seen, though, if they can get back into the NFC’s elite with all the personnel changes.

Record prediction: 10-7

Arthur: The Green Bay Packers’ path to being one of the NFC’s top contenders is filled with “ifs.” If Micah Parsons is healthy. If Tucker Kraft is healthy. If 2025 first-round pick Matthew Golden steps up at receiver, filling the void left by Romeo Doubs’ departure. Throw in the fact that they have a second-place schedule, too. But Green Bay is somewhat fortunate with its game slate. Outside the division, games against the Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers and Miami Dolphins should be wins at home. On the road, the Packers have the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium, which doesn’t provide the best home-field advantage. This should be a double-digit win season for Green Bay. 

Record prediction: 7-10

McKenna: The discount for Kyler Murray was incredible. The quarterback-value contract did not, however, embolden the Minnesota Vikings to go out and fix their many problems. In fact, they shipped off edge Jonathan Greenard, one of their best players, in a trade. And without much of a free agency class (due to cap constraints), the Vikings will have to rely upon their rookie defensive linemen Caleb Banks and Domonique Orange to contribute right away. Given Banks’ injury history (a 300-pound man with foot issues), I have concerns. Last year was the year when they were supposed to contend. Because that flopped, this might have to be their get-right year.

NFC South

Record prediction: 8-9

Auman: Adding Kevin Stefanski as head coach should be good for an Atlanta Falcons offense that ranked 24th in scoring last year, but they didn’t sign a free agent making more than $5 million a year (and that was tackle Jawaan Taylor), and they lost four free agents making at least that much. They didn’t have a first-round pick due to trading up for edge rusher James Pearce Jr. last year, so there isn’t much of an influx of talent. Do they want Tua Tagovailoa or Michael Penix to be the starting quarterback? Or neither and draft another in 2027? Atlanta lost seven of eight games in the middle of 2025 – win just one more of those and it’s somehow division champs. The NFC South is close enough that any of the four teams can enter 2026 with confidence, but it still feels like a ninth straight year missing the playoffs.

Record prediction: 9-8

Auman: Could the Carolina Panthers have a better record than 2025 and still miss out on a division title? Finishing first last year means they get to play the Seattle Seahawks, Denver Broncos and Philadelphia Eagles, and it’s hard to see them going better than 1-2 in those games. Carolina actively upgraded its defense, writing big checks to land edge rusher Jaelan Phillips and linebacker Devin Lloyd. The Panthers put their top two draft picks into both sides of the line of scrimmage, addressing clear needs. Head coach Dave Canales has given up play-calling duties, so there’s uncertainty in how a first-time playcaller in Brad Idzik can handle that challenge. Bryce Young’s three NFL seasons have seen his touchdown pass total rise from 11 to 15 to 23 – if he can continue that rise in 2026, the Panthers aren’t far from repeating as division champs.

Record prediction: 8-9

Auman: The New Orleans Saints were the opposite of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year, opening 2-10 then surprising with four wins in the final five weeks. Can quarterback Tyler Shough sustain that strong finish over a full season? New Orleans actively upgraded the offense around him, signing running back Travis Etienne and guard David Edwards before drafting receiver Jordyn Tyson and adding much-needed depth at receiver and tight end. Can the return of linebacker Kaden Elliss offset the loss of Demario Davis? Can a young secondary step up after losing key names over the last two years? A last-place schedule is a major help, giving them the Arizona Cardinals, Las Vegas Raiders and New York Giants as three winnable games. All four NFC South teams went 3-3 in division, so if anyone can just take care of business in those games, the division title could go with that. 

Record prediction: 10-7

Auman: Can the Tampa Bay Buccaneers stay healthy in 2026? They pushed through injuries in their 6-2 start and were scuttled by them in losing seven of eight down the stretch, a collapse that nearly cost Todd Bowles his job. The defensive front is much improved – a healthy defensive tackle Caliah Kancey, vet Al-Quadin Muhammad and rookies Rueben Bain Jr. and Josiah Trotter will make life easier for the secondary. How do they adjust to losing two franchise icons with Lavonte David retiring and Mike Evans signing with the San Francisco 49ers? Can the offense under new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson look more like 2024 under Liam Coen, with Kenny Gainwell sparking what should be a solid running game? The NFC South plays the NFC North this year — three years ago, the Bucs won the division going 3-1 against the North when the rest of the division went 2-10. If they can even go 2-2, it could be the difference in a tightly bunched division.

NFC West

Record prediction: 4-13

Williams: Playing competent and competitive football under first-year head coach Mike LaFleur is the goal for the Arizona Cardinals. Arizona ignored the pocket protectors, eschewing positional value in favor of taking, who many NFL scouts I spoke with believed was the best player in the draft, running back Jeremiyah Love at No. 3. Intimately familiar with a diversity of run game schemes, LaFleur will build an offense that best uses Love’s unique skill set. Not finishing last in the NFC West would be a big win for the Cardinals. 

Record prediction: 9-8

Williams: The Los Angeles Rams pushed all their chips into the middle of the table for the 2026 season, making a blockbuster trade with the Kansas City Chiefs for versatile slot corner Trent McDuffie and signing his teammate, outside cornerback Jaylen Watson, in free agency, significantly upgrading a defense that let them down in the NFC Championship Game at Seattle. However, Matthew Stafford is 38 years old and played all 17 games last season for the first time since 2021. And slated to back Stafford up is surprising first-round pick Ty Simpson, who has never taken an NFL snap and is a play away from leading a team that is the current betting favorite to win the Super Bowl. The Rams also must make sure Puka Nacua’s off-the-field issues are in the rearview mirror. 

Record prediction: 10-7

Williams: The San Francisco 49ers improved on offense with the additions of veteran receivers Mike Evans and Christian Kirk, and the return of linebacker Dre Greenlaw in free agency should help bring intensity and juice back to the defense. The returns of Fred Warner and Nick Bosa from season-ending injuries should help that as well. San Francisco still has one of the most talented teams in the league. But the 49ers are also one of the older teams, and it’s hard to see them staying healthy for an entire season. Looks like the Super Bowl window of this version of Kyle Shanahan’s team is closing. 

Record prediction: 11-6

Williams: The Seattle Seahawks have the league’s Offensive Player of the Year returning in wide receiver Jackson Smith-Njigba and everyone else on offense, other than Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III. They also lost some important players defensively in free agency, like cornerback Riq Woolen, safety Coby Bryant and edge rusher Boye Mafe, but the foundational pieces remain and the Seahawks still have one of the youngest rosters in the league. The bottom line is that the Super Bowl window is still wide open, and the Seahawks have a chance to appear in back-to-back NFL title games for the first time since the 2013-2014 seasons.