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McALLEN — If the date June 1 doesn’t ring a bell. It should.
That’s when hurricane season starts and it’s never too early to start checking hurricane kits and preparing for a storm.
But, this year, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is predicting a below normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2026.
Still, NOAA Administrator Dr. Neil Jacobs says it’s important to have an emergency plan ready and listen to local emergency managers.
“Even though we’re expecting a below average season in the Atlantic, it’s very important to understand that it only takes one,” he said, adding that there have been Category 5 hurricanes that make landfall during below average seasons.
“Determine your risk. Your risk in the mid-Valley is not going to include storm surge,” said National Weather Service (NWS) Warning Coordination Meteorologist Barry Goldsmith. “If you’re talking about Laguna Heights, Laguna Vista, Port Isabel, South Padre Island, east side of Los Fresnos, far east side of Brownsville they’ve got a surge threat as well.”
In general, people should be prepared for rainfall flooding, surf flooding and wind damage in the Valley, said Goldsmith. He suggests buying anchors, braces and connectors for mobile and manufactured homes, which is cheaper overall than having to replace the home and risk personal safety if destroyed.
People need to look at this from their house’s perspective, business perspective, community perspective and beyond, he said.
For a single-wide that may not be built super well, anchoring the home can maybe get resilience from 60 mph winds to 90 mph, he said.
“Most hurricanes coming into the Mid-Valley over here may not produce winds much higher than 90s,” he continued. “A big bad one could still produce 100-plus (mph winds) and that’s a whole other ball game even when you fix it.”
NOAA is predicting a roughly 55% chance of the hurricane season being below normal, 35% chance of a normal season and a 10% chance of an above normal season, said Jacobs, who is also NOAA’s under secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere.
“This equates to eight to 14 named storms with winds at or above 39 miles an hour,” he continued. “Of these, three to six hurricanes with wind at or above 74 miles an hour and one to three major hurricanes — that’s your category three to five — with winds at or above 111 miles an hour.”
In the Atlantic, there’s a 98% chance of El Niño conditions occurring later in the season and an 80% chance that this year’s El Niño will be moderate to strong, Jacobs said.
Goldsmith shared this year’s official hurricane guide for the Valley with an emergency preparedness assessment which asks if you have an evacuation plan for your family and pets, if you have flashlights and batteries, if you have at least a seven-day supply of medications and more. The guide is also available in Spanish.